8 Reasons Donald Trump Could Lose
I wrote God, Trump, and the 2020 Election to help wake up the church. Donald Trump has done many good things for our country, and his re-election campaign has a lot of momentum so far. But conservative Christians must understand that Trump’s re-election, politically speaking, is not a certainty.
My book, which releases Jan. 14, 2020, analyzes what is at stake for Christians if Trump loses. He has become a champion for religious freedom, pro-life issues and supporting Israel. I believe there is strong spiritual warfare against this president, his re-election and all he stands for. At the same time, though, I document prophecies going back to 2007 that say Trump will win a second term. Time will tell if the prophecies come true. Yet there are political realities, especially with the recent push to impeach him, that we must consider. Here are eight reasons why, politically speaking, Trump might lose:
1. Overconfidence
In my book, I warn that the No. 1 hurdle to Trump’s re-election is overconfidence. The president’s supporters cannot sit back and enjoy the political ride. I have Christian friends who believe the effort to impeach the president will backfire and that Trump will win by a landslide. While this may be true, overconfidence breeds complacency and laziness because it lulls people into thinking success is automatic. This is a serious threat to Trump’s re-election efforts, according to my friend Tom Ertl, one of the best political minds I know. I quote him in my book based on an insightful article he wrote for NewsWithViews.com.
This is so similar to what Hillary Clinton’s campaign and supporters did in 2016, I can’t help but wonder if Trump’s opponents are feeding this kind of presumptive confidence to disengage his base. I hope conservatives wake up to the fact that if the present attitude within the Trump camp continues through 2020, a Democrat will be inaugurated in 2021.
Trump supporters must realize his 2020 reelection effort will be much harder than his surprise victory in 2016. The president is not invincible. Democrats will not be overconfident this time, and there will be no surprises.
2. Social Media Censorship
One of the major contributors to Trump’s 2016 victory was his ability to use social media to connect with American voters, coupled with alternative media efforts to counter the constant onslaught of anti-Trump rhetoric in the corporate media.
For pro-Trump conservatives, the most critical challenge posed by this leftist social media censorship is that it prevents them from communicating with current and potential supporters. The silver lining is that Trump has initiated antitrust legal actions against the social media establishment. Trump’s moves to break up Big Tech must be swift and determined. Otherwise, his ability to engage his base and win over new voters will be greatly hindered.
3. Voter Fraud
Ertl had this insight about the election: “The one single thing the Democratic Party, at all levels, is best at is voter fraud, and they are very proud of their refinement of creating illegal votes. … In fact, voter fraud is so prevalent in large Democratic urban areas that the art of stealing votes is part of every Democratic candidate’s election strategy and considered normal behavior.”
The Trump campaign is aware that the states that propelled Trump to a 2016 electoral victory were won by the thinnest of margins. For the Trump camp to overcome voter fraud, it must work with state and federal officials to investigate and prosecute election fraud. This cannot wait until December 2020; that will be too late.
4. Ballot Harvesting
Because absentee voting has increased nationwide over the past decade, ballot harvesting has become a growing concern. While the extent of mischief in this area is not fully known, the process is rife with opportunities for fraud and deception.
If no one is prosecuted or jailed for illegal ballot harvesting, these activities will continue. Federal agencies that oversee elections and the state houses of government must help bring an end to these practices. It is laughable that while the mainstream media obsesses over fake news reports of Russian election meddling, they practically ignore the real election meddling carried out in every modern federal election.
5. Economic Collapse
One of Trump’s greatest accomplishments in his first nearly three years in office has been turning on the U.S. economic engine. The growing economy is clearly an area of strength for Trump as he faces reelection. His America-first economic policies that are helping to revive flagging industries, increase wages and bring a stock market boom will go a long way in attracting working-class voters from the Midwest.
It should also be noted that the nation’s economic condition is especially significant for incumbent candidates. Only two presidential incumbents in the past 50 years have failed to cinch a second term—Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Because history shows that incumbents do well even when their first elections and terms were contentious, many believe these two exceptions were caused by the tough economic times the country was facing during their campaigns. (We could add Gerald Ford, except he was never elected and only became president when Richard Nixon resigned. Although not considered an incumbent, Ford did not win his bid for reelection in 1976 due in large part to the tough economy.)
Trump’s present campaign dependency on his economic successes and the rise in the stock market are a perfect setup for the central bankers and international financiers to stage an economic collapse just before the election in 2020. A similar economic downturn in September and October of 2008 propelled Barack Obama to victory in his first presidential run.
6. More War in the Middle East
President Trump is known for his often-threatening rhetoric against Iran, and this puts him in a troubling political situation made worse by the way Western media and the Washington establishment seem to be constantly pushing the United States toward a war with Iran. If Trump initiates a war with Iran, Trump’s chances of being reelected will be destroyed. A war with Iran cannot be won. Iran is not like Serbia, Libya or Iraq—nations that don’t have strong militaries.
Iran not only is a formidable military power; it has over 80 million citizens, many of whom could be recruited as soldiers. A war against Iran would be long and expensive, and it would create an international public opinion nightmare for the president. On top of that, Trump campaigned against the senseless and expensive Middle Eastern wars that marked the presidencies of both Bushes, so he must avoid one—even if he must continue to punish Iran for bad behavior.
7. Evangelical Never-Trumpers
I believe the term “Never-Trumper” represents a very dangerous strain in both the Republican Party and among self-described evangelicals who still hold to the feeling that they should vote for anyone but Trump—even if the Democratic challenger is the most extreme leftist in the Democratic Party. They should have an epiphany like Dr. Richard Land, the respected president of Southern Evangelical Seminary in Charlotte, North Carolina, did.
Land disliked Donald Trump so much in 2016 that he favored any of the other 17 candidates for the Republican nomination. But “when it [came] to a binary choice between Hillary Clinton and President Trump, it took me about one nanosecond to determine that at the very worst, the president was the lesser evil versus Hillary Clinton,” he said. “And frankly, he’s done far better than I thought he would.”
When Trump won 81% of the white evangelical vote in 2016, he faced the constant demonization and public opposition of the evangelical Never-Trump leaders. When Christianity Today did polls on who evangelical leaders were backing in 2016, only one or two said they backed Trump. In previous elections, there were evangelicals who voted for Democrats. Usually those Christians are much more liberal, not just concerning politics, but also in social and theological issues.
Many of the evangelicals who were skeptical of Trump but ultimately voted for him in 2016 no longer doubt his ability to lead. By all standards, it seems Trump could win upward of 80% or even 90% of the evangelical vote in 2020. Die-hard Never-Trumpers could become an obstacle to reaching these levels if they make a concerted effort to suppress evangelical voters for Trump. If the president’s evangelical support falls to the low-70 percentiles, he will have a hard time winning in some of the swing states.
8. Division Fatigue Syndrome
While there is Trump Derangement Syndrome, there is also “Division Fatigue Syndrome” on the part of some conservatives. This is partly because of the steady drumbeat of negative press coverage, but also because of the president’s combative tweets, which critics blame for causing division in this country.
I don’t believe Trump caused the divisions. But his willingness to be a disruptor of the status quo is bringing the divisions to the surface. Many have observed that Trump doesn’t start fights, but he won’t back away from one. It was his willingness to stand up to bullies on the left that made millions of Americans vote him into office. But if he wants to win a second term, he can’t continue to alienate so many groups—including those who support his policies.
