This Is How Donald Trump Will Win
In what has become an almost daily ritual, I feel compelled to comment on a post from #NeverTrumper Erick Erickson. This time Erickson actually suspended his usual Trump diatribes in order to pose an honest question for supporters of Donald Trump.
Fair enough. It’s a question worth answering, too.
Erickson writes in The Resurgent, “I’m honestly curious to know what Trump Republicans see as his path to victory. All I hear is ‘he is not Hillary.’ And they are right. He has higher negatives, worse polling, less party loyalty, less money, and more states on defense. To win he must hold all of Romney’s states with 206 electoral college votes and find 64 more electoral college votes. Even if Trump wins all of Romney’s states and wins Pennsylvania and Florida, he would still lose to Clinton and on top of that he is more likely than not going to lose North Carolina while having to spend resources just to play defense in Arizona and Missouri.
“So strategically, how does Trump win?”
Erickson goes on to add the answer he usually hears from Trump supporters is “the polling is wrong.” I won’t offer that one, because I believe the pollsters are mostly correct. Hillary likely has a slight lead at this stage, which also brings me to my main point.
Trump will win because the evidence indicates Americans are about to turn the status quo on its head.
I’m not going to bother poring over specific poll numbers to bolster my assertion. I’m no Nate Silver and even if I was capable of setting up charts and graphs full of original data they probably wouldn’t portray what I’m trying to say very accurately.
Donald Trump continues to poll behind Clinton right now, in July, because the electorate remains in a holding pattern similar to where they are in every election cycle over three and a half months out from Election Day. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to stay there.
Trump wins in November for several reasons:
One, people will realize closer to the time to vote that there are really only two choices, so many of those who are persuadable will go against the establishment when it counts. These are the “late deciders” pollsters talk about in every election, the ones who typically vote for change.
This year the forces pushing for change are particularly strong as we have rotten economic conditions to go along with years of anger built up against the cultural changes fostered by politicians in the Democrat Party who are throwing favors to their constituents at the expense of everyone else.
Similarly, the establishment leadership of the Republican Party has allowed these changes to occur without offering much opposition. Trump represents the anti-establishment in this election and it will make a difference. Therefore, a vote for Trump is almost like a vote against BOTH parties.
Two, Trump will win because Republicans will rally around him after the convention.
Up until next week there was at least a chance Donald Trump would be removed as the nominee, so some Republicans likely felt they’d keep up the appearance of opposition until the threshold has been unalterably crossed.
That moment will occur next week and these same people will see there’s nothing left to fight for … and perhaps begin to realize at the same time that Trump maybe isn’t as bad as they thought.
Three, Trump wins because voters will realize there’s a legacy candidate involved here and Hillary Clinton is truly a lying, substance-free empty pantsuit who wouldn’t be anything special today without the success of her philandering good ol’ boy husband Bill, who can basically sell ice to Eskimos.
She’s also a career criminal who skated the system and her email problems will stick to her like bugs in a roach motel.
Four, the polling isn’t as bad as Erickson makes it out to be. The fact Trump is only behind by a few points after the waves of negativity the media’s been throwing out at him indicates the bottom has been reached and there’s nowhere to go but up. We can’t say the same for Hillary, who only seems to prove Trump right in calling her “crooked” with each new revelation.
People aren’t dumb—or at least some non-Democrats aren’t. They’ll come around.
And if the recent polls are wrong in any way, it’s because people may be afraid to “admit” to anyone they support Trump for fear of a backlash. With all of the violence going on around us, that’s a real concern.
Lastly and perhaps most importantly, Trump will win because these are unstable times. Every election there are people claiming, “This is the most important election of our lifetimes.” While it may still have been true four years ago, it’s even more so now. Barack Obama has successfully transformed America into something that’s almost unrecognizable to anyone over the age of 30.
Those of us who remember the days before cell phones, the internet and social media recall a time when culture helped bind us together rather than tear us into little tiny pieces by those supporting same-sex marriage, transgender friendly bathrooms and unlimited illegal immigration and the Mexican flag waving that goes along with it.
It used to be you could have an opinion and not face an instantaneous barrage of abuse by culturally liberal onlookers who are all too willing to label you “intolerant” or a “racist” if you dare express your beliefs outside of your person and the politically correct norm.
To steal a quote Tim McGraw, “I miss back when.”
There were tremendous backlashes against these forces in the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014 and I think you’re going to see it again this year with a candidate like Trump, who may be rough around the edges and a little hard to like but offers a distinct new direction apart from an establishment that’s run the country into the ground.
It may be only four or five percent of the voting population making the switch, but that’s more than enough to deliver a convincing national victory for Trump.
So Erick, those are the reasons Trump will win … and it’s not because the polling is wrong. It’s because enough Americans will wake up one day and realize they don’t want another dose of Obama and his ilk.
Rush Limbaugh predicted Trump will win in a Reagan-like landslide. I won’t go that far, but I don’t think November will be as close as people think. The mood of the public outside the beltway isn’t the same as the elite class thinks it is. Take a drive to the country and visit a small town—and then tell me Trump can’t win. There may be more votes per square mile packed in the inner cities, but there are a lot more square miles outside of those cities.
Hillary will get the city dwellers who can’t or won’t vote for change no matter how bad things get … but Trump gets everyone else. That will be the difference.
