Presidential Prognostication: Iowa Numbers Shift the Averages

In the past week, polling has been a major storyline for the Republican presidential candidates, but most of the polls released have been reflective of the national opinion and in Iowa. There haven’t been any changes to the polling numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina since last week.

So let’s take a look at the Iowa and national numbers.

Iowa

Competing polls have produced substantially different results in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. To be sure, Ted Cruz continues to rise, but it’s far too early to call him the new front-runner. For sure, he is at least neck-and-neck with Donald Trump:

1. Donald Trump 25.89

2. Ted Cruz 25.44

3. Ben Carson 13.33

4. Marco Rubio 12.67

5. Jeb Bush 5.33

6. Rand Paul 3.33

7. Carly Fiorina 2.78

8. Chris Christie 2.11

9. Mike Huckabee 1.89

10. John Kasich 1.44

11. Rick Santorum 1.00

12-t. Lindsey Graham 0.11

12-t. George Pataki 0.11

No one has moved up or down any positions, but the margin between several candidates and their closest competitors have tightened up.

New Hampshire

As noted above, there has been no change in the New Hampshire polling averages:

1. Donald Trump 27.43

2. Marco Rubio 12.14

3. Ted Cruz 9.86

4. Ben Carson 9.00

5. Jeb Bush 7.29

6. John Kasich 7.29

7. Chris Christie 6.86

8. Carly Fiorina 4.57

9. Rand Paul 4.00

10. Mike Huckabee 1.00

11. Lindsey Graham 0.71

12. Rick Santorum 0.57

13. George Pataki 0.29

South Carolina

As noted above, there has been no change in the South Carolina polling averages:

1. Donald Trump 29.00

2. Ben Carson 22.67

3. Marco Rubio 13.33

4. Ted Cruz 12.33

5. Jeb Bush 6.67

6. Carly Fiorina 3.00

7-t. John Kasich 2.00

7-t. Mike Huckabee 2.00

7-t. Lindsey Graham 2.00

10. Rand Paul 1.33

11. Chris Christie 1.00

12. Rick Santorum 0.67

13. George Pataki 0.00

Combined Average

The combined average of the three early voting states now throws the weighting more toward Iowa than New Hampshire this week, due to the lack of polling activity in the other states:

1. Donald Trump 27.26

2. Ted Cruz 17.84

3. Marco Rubio 12.68

4. Ben Carson 12.11

5. Jeb Bush 6.21

6. Chris Christie 3.95

7. John Kasich 3.68

8. Carly Fiorina 3.21

9. Rand Paul 3.11

10. Mike Huckabee 1.53

11. Rick Santorum 0.79

12. Lindsey Graham 0.68

13. George Pataki 0.16

Ben Carson is definitely beginning to slide downward, and as older polls drop out of the averages, he will continue to drop off. There’s little to indicate there’s been a change in his momentum.

National

A number of new national polls have shown Donald Trump’s polling average, as well as his lead, are growing. Ben Carson’s decline isn’t as pronounced nationally as it has been in the early voting states:

1. Donald Trump 30.67

2. Ben Carson 14.92

3. Ted Cruz 14.50

4. Marco Rubio 12.92

5. Jeb Bush 4.58

6. Chris Christie 2.83

7. Carly Fiorina 2.75

8. John Kasich 2.42

9. Mike Huckabee 2.33

10. Rand Paul 2.25

11. Lindsey Graham 0.42

12. George Pataki 0.33

13. Rick Santorum 0.25

Ted Cruz is soaring in the national polls, as well. He’s surpassed Marco Rubio, and has pulled virtually even with Carson. When some of the older polls drop off next week, he will likely secure second place nationally, despite trailing Trump by a considerable margin.