The Numbers Game (and Why Ted Cruz Has a Lot to Smile About Right Now)

To say that Saturday reset the Republican presidential primary would be a gross understatement.

After winning two of the four nominating contests that day—both with much-needed delegate majorities—and tying for delegates in a third, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is proving his campaign speeches weren’t just hopeful rhetoric. If anyone can prevent front-runner Donald Trump from securing the party’s nomination, it is Cruz.

Trump continues to lead the delegate race, having won 391 votes at the national convention. That’s about 43 percent of the total delegates awarded. Meanwhile, Cruz has won 305 delegate votes, or about 34 percent of the total so far.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has half as many delegates as Cruz, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich has even fewer. While not mathematically eliminated, they both have to win the overwhelming majority of remaining delegates to reach 1,237—the number required to win the nomination.

Republican National Committee rules also require a candidate must win a delegate majority, or more than half of the awarded delegates, from at least eight states to be eligible for the party’s nomination. Again, Trump leads in this qualification with four states—South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee—while Cruz has won three: in Texas, Kansas and Maine.

Those are all plenty of reasons for Cruz supporters to be smiling, particularly with the prospect of winner-take-all states coming up in just a week. But there are a few numbers that his campaign needs to turn around if it is going to secure the nomination.

So far, Trump has won about 61 percent of the counties, while Cruz has only won 36 percent. Trump also has a nearly 6-point lead over the Texas senator in terms of popular vote:

1. Trump — 3,600,184 (34.33 percent)
2. Cruz — 2,996,514 (28.57 percent)
3. Rubio — 2,237,316 (21.33 percent)
4. Kasich — 733,413 (6.99 percent)