Is Hillary’s Post-Convention Bump Really That Big?

Depending on which individual poll you may have heard about, Hillary Clinton has regained the lead over Donald Trump in the national polls.

But as we have pointed out in the past, the presidential election isn’t conducted via a national popularity poll. Rather, each individual state determines how its electors will vote, and those electoral votes are awarded to the candidates based on the popular vote of each individual state.

This has led to a number of states where the polling indicates a very close race between Clinton and Trump, known as “battleground states.” Here the closest states, as of right now:

• Florida — Trump leads by 0.3 of a percentage point
• Iowa — Clinton leads by 0.5 of a percentage point
• Arizona — Clinton leads by 0.5 of a percentage point
• Ohio — Clinton leads by 0.8 of a percentage point
• North Carolina — Clinton leads by 2 percentage points

There are three other “battlegrounds” where the leading candidate’s lead falls within the average margin of error. These states include:

• Nevada — Clinton leads by 2.5 percentage points
• New Hampshire — Clinton leads by 3.7 percentage points
• Georgia — Trump leads by 4.0 percentage points

So, what does this all mean?

There are 538 votes in the Electoral College with each state receiving the same number of votes as the number of representatives and senators it sends to Congress. The District of Columbia, which does not send voting members to Congress, has three electoral votes to ensure its residents are not disenfranchised by the election system.

Taking into account the states that are leaning toward Clinton or Trump, and adding in the results of the battleground states, if the election were held today, the winner would be:

Hillary Clinton, 328-210.

However, if you “flip” the Clinton states that are too close to call, or which currently show her lead is within the margin of error, the winner would be:

Donald Trump, 270-268.