Will Cindy Strike Us Down?

Tropical Storm Cindy weakened slightly on Wednesday afternoon as it headed toward landfall on the Texas-Louisiana border, but it still threatened to bring flash floods from Texas to Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Cindy’s wind speed fell to maximum sustained winds of 50 miles (85 km) per hour, and the storm center was located about 170 miles (270 km.) south of Morgan City, Louisiana, the NHC said in an afternoon update.

A child died in the Gulf Coast community of Fort Morgan, Alabama, the U.S. Coast Guard said, adding that it had been called to assist with a helicopter evacuation but that the child succumbed to injuries before it could launch a rescue.

Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency and readied emergency vehicles and the Louisiana National Guard. As of noon, he said there were no reports of significant flooding or damage, but added there were worries of tornadoes striking the state.

Alabama also declared a state of emergency, Texas increased its state of preparedness and Florida’s governor warned residents in the northwest part of his state to stay alert for flooding and heavy rain.

The storm so far has mostly limited impact on oil and gas production. About 17 percent of oil production in the Gulf was shut in and 40 platforms, or about five percent, were evacuated. Expected rains and wind could disrupt regional refineries that are home to some 2.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity.

Sabine Pilots, which guides ships in and out of the ports of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange, Texas, suspended some operations on Wednesday, a spokesperson said.

The storm, moving northwest at nearly 9 miles (14 km) per hour, was expected to make landfall along the Texas-Louisiana border, near major Exxon Mobil Corp., Motiva Enterprises and Total SA refineries. Outages at refineries could drive up gasoline prices.

“The big story here is going to be a large area of rain across the southern portion of the U.S.,” said Matt Rogers, president and co-founder of Commodity Weather Group.

Cindy could drop between 6 and 9 inches (15-23 cm) of rain and bring as much as 12 inches to some parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, and cause “life-threatening flash flooding,” the NHC said.

The storm could cause a surge of up to 3 feet (0.91 meters) in isolated areas and possibly spawn tornadoes from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, the NHC said.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest privately owned crude storage terminal in the United States, suspended vessel offloading operations ahead of the storm but expected no interruptions to deliveries from its hub in Clovelly, Louisiana.

While coastal refiners and ports braced for the storm, energy companies with operations in the Gulf of Mexico reported little impact on production. Shell suspended some well operations and Anadarko Petroleum, ENI, and Enbridge said they had evacuated non-essential personnel.

The Gulf of Mexico region is home to about 17 percent of U.S. crude and 5 percent of dry natural gas output, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

New Orleans residents were told to expect about six inches of rain from the storm, Mayor Mitch Landrieu said in a press conference on Wednesday, about half the amount previously forecast.

There was little impact on air travel ahead of the storm. At midday, New Orleans airport reported eight flights canceled and Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson had seven flights canceled, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking service.

There were reports of voluntary evacuations from some coastal communities in Texas, including the Bolivar Peninsula in Galveston County, near where the storm is expected to hit land.

The Tennessee Valley Authority said it was lowering some lake levels to add water storage capacity for rains from Cindy. TVA provides electricity to more than 9 million people in parts of seven southeastern states, along with flood control for the Tennessee River system.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Most meteorologists forecast this year will be more active than normal. {eoa}

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