Digging Deeper Into the Latest South Carolina Numbers
The latest polling numbers out of South Carolina indicate there’s been little change in the Republican presidential race, even after last weekend’s acrimonious televised debate.
According to the polls, Christians are split, as are Republicans of almost every ideological bent, along very similar lines. That suggests, if the polls are accurate—and they were in New Hampshire—that the candidates trailing businessman Donald Trump may need to rethink their strategies.
Here’s a look at those new polls.
CBS News/YouGov
The latest CBS News/YouGov poll out of South Carolina showed, overall, Donald Trump’s lead has grown in South Carolina to 22 points over Ted Cruz. Trump has 42 percent support, compared to Cruz’s 20. Marco Rubio was the only other candidate in double digits at 15 percent.
Among evangelical voters, which comprised nearly two-thirds of Republicans polled, that lead shrinks. Trump receives 41 percent support to Cruz’ 25, while Rubio drops to 13 percent.
According to the poll, conducted Feb. 10-12, Trump was leading in every demographic group, except among those who self-identified as “very conservative.” Among those voters, Cruz holds a 37-33 advantage with Rubio at 12 percent and Jeb Bush at 11 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of 5.7 points.
Gravis Marketing
The latest Gravis Marketing poll, conducted on behalf of One America News Network, shows Donald Trump with a 37-23 lead over Ted Cruz with Marco Rubio trailing at 19 percent.
The poll results were not broken down by demographics, but the Gravis poll found 54 percent of those polled—Republican and Democrat alike—self-identified as evangelical Christians. That is consistent with other polls that show evangelicals provide a significant voting bloc for each party.
The poll, conducted Feb. 11-13, has a margin of error of 3 points.
South Carolina House Republican Caucus
The Republican Caucus of the South Carolina House of Representatives released a poll conducted Sunday, after the CBS News presidential debate. The poll surveyed 1,300 South Carolinians and has a margin of error of 2.8 points.
Overall, Trump led with 32.7 percent, followed by Rubio at 14.0, Cruz at 13.9, and Bush at 13.4 percent. Kasich received 9.9 percent, and Carson received 5.8 percent. The poll broke the demographics down by age and political ideology, but not on religious views.
Trump won every demographic group.
Among “Conservative Republicans”: 1. Trump 27 percent, 2. Rubio 19 percent, 3. Cruz 18 percent, 4. Bush 15 percent, 5-t. Kasich 7 percent, 5-t. Carson 7 percent
Among “Moderate Republicans”: 1. Trump 34 percent, 2. Kasich 22 percent, 3. Bush 15 percent, 4. Rubio 13 percent, 5. Carson 6 percent, 6. Cruz 4 percent
Among “Tea Party Republicans”: 1. Trump 46 percent, 2. Cruz 27 percent, 3. Rubio 8 percent, 4. Carson 6 percent, 5. Bush 5 percent, 6. Kasich 4 percent
Among “Libertarians”: 1. Trump 45 percent, 2. Cruz 27 percent, 3. Rubio 9 percent, 4-t. Kasich 5 percent, 4-t. Carson 5 percent, 6. Bush 4 percent
Among “Independents”: 1. Trump 37 percent, 2. Rubio 19 percent, 3. Kasich 13 percent, 4. Carson 7 percent, 5. Cruz 6 percent, 6. Bush 5 percent
Other Polls
A number of other polls were conducted that didn’t report demographics, or reported only presidential preferences. Here are those results:
American Research Group (400 LV, 5 pt. MOE) — 1. Trump 35 percent, 2. Kasich 15 percent, 3. Rubio 14 percent, 4. Cruz 12 percent, 5. Bush 10 percent, 6. Carson 2 percent
Public Policy Polling (methodology unavailable) — 1. Trump 35 percent, 2-t. Cruz 18 percent, 2-t. Rubio 18 percent, 4. Kasich 10 percent, 5-t. Bush 7 percent, 5-t. Carson 7 percent
