Exit Polling Proves Ted Cruz Is Right
The Super Tuesday I exit polling data were conclusive.
In every state where self-identified evangelical Christians gave U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz even a plurality of their support, he won. His placement in the other states also directly correlated with his ability to win self-described born-again Christians.
Based on the polling data, one could reasonably assume a pastor-driven voter education effort in future states might have a beneficial impact for the Texas senator. But time is running out.
To secure the nomination, Cruz still needs eight state delegate majorities, and he also needs to win nearly 60 percent of the remaining delegates. With all of the other Republican presidential candidates vowing to continue on, his pathway to the nomination becomes very difficult.
But even if evangelicals can’t give Cruz the nomination outright, by turning out, they can extend the contest all the way to the national convention by preventing the other candidates from achieving the necessary delegate counts.
The data below show the popular votes, delegates awarded, and exit polling data for each of the Super Tuesday I states:
Alabama
Donald Trump * 371,715 36 delegates
Ted Cruz 180,601 13 delegates
Marco Rubio 159,799 1 delegate
Ben Carson 87,516
John Kasich 37,969
Exit Polling—77 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 44 percent, Cruz 22 percent, Rubio 17 percent, Carson 11 percent, Kasich 3 percent
Alaska
Ted Cruz 7,973 12 delegates
Donald Trump 7,346 11 delegates
Marco Rubio 3,318 5 delegates
Ben Carson 2,401
John Kasich 892
No exit polling was conducted in Alaska.
Arkansas
Donald Trump 129,865 16 delegates
Ted Cruz 121,031 15 delegates
Marco Rubio 99,307 9 delegates
Ben Carson 22,664
John Kasich 14,862
Exit Polling—78 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Cruz 33 percent, Trump 33 percent, Rubio 24 percent, Carson 6 percent, Kasich 2 percent
Georgia
Donald Trump * 500,743 43 delegates
Ted Cruz 315,514 18 delegates
Marco Rubio 304,629 15 delegates
Ben Carson 80,396
John Kasich 72,193
Exit Polling—69 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 39 percent, Cruz 26 percent, Rubio 23 percent, Carson 6 percent, Kasich 4 percent
Massachusetts
Donald Trump 298,986 21 delegates
John Kasich 110,505 8 delegates
Marco Rubio 109,471 8 delegates
Ted Cruz 58,376 4 delegates
Ben Carson 15,752 1 delegate
Exit Polling—26 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 49 percent, Rubio 19 percent, Cruz 13 percent, Kasich 10 percent, Carson 7 percent
Minnesota
Marco Rubio 41,073 17 delegates
Ted Cruz 32,242 13 delegates
Donald Trump 23,650 8 delegates
Ben Carson 8,084
John Kasich 6,443
No exit polling was conducted in Minnesota.
Oklahoma
Ted Cruz 157,941 16 delegates
Donald Trump 130,141 14 delegates
Marco Rubio 119,562 13 delegates
Ben Carson 28,572
John Kasich 16,515
Exit Polling—75 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Cruz 39 percent, Rubio 26 percent, Trump 25 percent, Carson 7 percent, Kasich 2 percent
Tennessee
Donald Trump * 332,702 31 delegates
Ted Cruz 211,159 14 delegates
Marco Rubio 180,944 10 delegates
Ben Carson 64,846
John Kasich 45,243
Exit Polling—76 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 41 percent, Cruz 27 percent, Rubio 18 percent, Carson 7 percent, Kasich 4 percent
Texas (incomplete)
Ted Cruz 1,238,520
Donald Trump 757,108
Marco Rubio 501,836
John Kasich 120,154
Ben Carson 117,667
Exit Polling—63 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Cruz 50 percent, Trump 26 percent, Rubio 15 percent, Carson 4 percent, Kasich 3 percent
Vermont
Donald Trump 19,897 8 delegates
John Kasich 18,455 8 delegates
Marco Rubio 11,708
Ted Cruz 5,907
Ben Carson 2,538
Exit Polling—30 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 26 percent, Rubio 24 percent, Kasich 23 percent, Cruz 16 percent, Carson 9 percent
Virginia
Donald Trump 356,077 17 delegates
Marco Rubio 327,423 16 delegates
Ted Cruz 173,360 8 delegates
John Kasich 96,677 5 delegates
Ben Carson 60,105 3 delegates
Exit Polling—53 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 36 percent, Rubio 28 percent, Cruz 20 percent, Carson 8 percent, Kasich 6 percent
* — signifies the winner received a majority of the delegates; RNC rules require eight state majorities to be eligible for the party’s nomination.