Prior to the Independence Day holiday weekend, the Republican primary in Wisconsin’s First Congressional District was a tale of two districts.
In one, based entirely on media polling in the district, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan was seeing nearly 70-percent support from Republicans. In the other, based entirely on anecdotal on-the-ground reports from the district, he and Janesville businessman Paul Nehlen were in a political dead heat “too close to call.”
Then came the PMI poll conducted last week. The latest numbers show Ryan has fallen nearly 30 points to just 43 percent support. Meanwhile, support for Nehlen has increased to roughly 32 percent. A margin-of-error swing would put them within three points of each other.
Nehlen launched his campaign in early May, meaning Ryan has lost more than a dozen points each month since the primary race began. There is still almost a month to go before the Aug. 9 primary election.
The implications are historic. No Speaker of the House has ever lost his party’s nomination.
