Update: Polls Suggest New Hampshire Vote Will Be Close
Barring perhaps one of the most unexpected campaign collapses of all time, Donald Trump will win in New Hampshire Tuesday, but the real question is how the rest of the field will line up behind him.
The pollsters are working overtime to try to figure that out. In the past 24 hours, seven new polls have been released from the Granite State. Here is a look at some of the key surveys we’re watching:
CNN/WMUR—Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13, Kasich 12, Bush 10, Christie 4, Fiorina 4, Carson 2: “Trump and Cruz have pretty much held their standing post-Iowa, while we have seen a lot of movement in the establishment lane between Rubio, Kasich, Bush and Christie.”
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist—Trump 30, Rubio 17, Cruz 15, Kasich 10, Bush 9, Christie 4, Carson 4, Fiorina 2: “Of those likely to vote in the Republican Primary, only 12 percent identify as evangelical Christians, and only 36 percent say they practice any religion at all.”
American Research Group (daily tracking poll)—Trump 36 (up), Rubio 15 (up), Kasich 14 (up), Cruz 12 (steady), Bush 8 (steady), Christie 6 (steady), Carson 2 (steady), Fiorina 2 (steady).
University of Massachusetts/7 News (daily tracking poll)—Trump 34 (down), Rubio 15 (steady), Cruz 14 (steady), Kasich 8 (up), Bush 8 (steady), Christie 5 (steady), Carson 4 (steady), Fiorina 3 (steady).
The margins of error of the polls range between 3.8 percentage points and 4.9 percentage points. With that in mind, it’s a four- or five-candidate race for second and third place heading into Saturday night’s all-important New Hampshire debate.
