Weather’s Factor on Iowa Caucus Takes Unexpected Turn
Most of the focus on the weather leading up to Monday night’s first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses has been on the timing of an incoming snow storm. But there’s more to consider.
The storm itself, which is expected to dump more than a foot of snow on much of the western half of the state, won’t arrive until most of the precinct caucuses are concluded. But it will be a major problem on Tuesday—for high school basketball.
Iowa is frequently known as a wrestling state, but it also has a very strong tradition of boys’ and girls’ basketball. Playoffs begin in just 10 days for the girls and 17 days for boys, and many of the high school conferences require all in-conference games to be played.
With the number of available make-up dates dwindling and the likelihood that this week’s storm could impact Friday evening games as well, many schools have moved up their Tuesday night games to Monday evening. Many of these schools also serve as precinct caucus sites.
Some planning to attend caucus may have to skip out to catch their children’s basketball games. Others who don’t attempt to get to their sites early enough may have trouble finding parking, which could prevent them from getting in line before the 7 p.m. deadline.
This is a variable that is almost impossible to predict. However, many Republican Party officials have said privately they expect a “record-shattering” turnout Monday evening. Some have said it could reach as high as 200,000—about 65 percent higher than the previous record set in 2008.
Based on a 150,000 projected turnout, as well as some 11th-hour issues that came up in the GOP race, here is the latest projected vote totals:
1. Donald Trump 45,000
2. Ted Cruz 39,000
3. Marco Rubio 18,000
4. Ben Carson 13,000
5. Rand Paul 12,000
6. Rick Santorum 9,500
7. Mike Huckabee 7,000
8. Jeb Bush 3,500
9. Chris Christie 1,500
10. Carly Fiorina 1,000
11. John Kasich 500
