Dear Mainstream Media: Not So Fast
In a new Zogby Analytics nationwide online poll of 1,277 likely voters conducted last week, it appears the “convention bumps” are gone and, as pollster John Zogby said, “we’re back to a close race.”
The poll, which had a margin of error of 2.8 points, featured numerous demographic questions, but the primary question was:
If the election for president were being held today and the Democratic nominee for president is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for president is Donald Trump; the Libertarian nominee is Gary Johnson and the Green party nominee is Jill Stein for whom would you vote?
In that four-way race, Clinton currently leads with 38 percent, while Trump gets 36 percent. Johnson and Stein get 8 and 5 percent, respectively—well below the threshold to qualify for the presidential debates later this fall.
Trump leads Clinton among his “core groups,” which also happen to be the most likely voting blocs: men and voters who are 50 years old and older. Clinton’s core support comes from women, millennials, Hispanics and African-American voters.
“Trump has kept the race close by winning Independents,” the poll report states. “He is winning Independents 32 percent to 26 percent and has also closed the gap among older millennials. Trump is tied with Clinton at 30 percent among 25-34 year old voters.
“Another interesting development is over the years we have tracked voting habits among NASCAR fans and Weekly Wal-Mart shoppers. Ten years ago, these groups tended to slant conservative and Republican. That trend has been reversed during the Obama Presidency, and these consumers tend to be more liberal and supporters of Democrats today.
“Trump has reversed this trend. Both NASCAR fans and Wal-Mart shoppers favor Trump over Clinton. Donald Trump is winning NASCAR fans (44% to 36%) and weekly WalMart shoppers 41 percent to 36 percent.”
The findings are particularly significant because Zogby is a self-described Democrat. Not only that, but his brother, James, was on the Democratic National Convention’s platform-drafting committee.
