Professor With Stunningly Accurate Track Record Prophesies Presidential Winner

Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, has a nearly prophetic ability to accurately predict the winner of presidential elections.

As a matter of establishing his “track record,” he’s correctly predicted the winners of the last eight presidential elections. And, in an interview with The Washington Post, he’s made his prediction for a ninth:

“Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.”

But that’s not an endorsement. Lichtman accused the Republican presidential nominee of “enriching himself at the expense of others,” of being a “serial fabricator,” of having “incited violence against an opponent,” and of having “invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections.” Throughout the interview, he exposes his personal political biases, but the system he has developed for predicting elections does not take those into account.

Putting aside his personal views, he said many indicators are currently pointing to a Trump victory in November.

“Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory,” he said. “Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out—for sure—five keys.”

The “keys” he mentions are explained in greater detail in his new book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016. They are:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

“The Keys to the White House is a historically-based prediction system,” Lichtman told The Post. “I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.

“The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of ‘true’ always favors the re-election of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House.

“If six or more of the 13 keys are false—that is, they go against the party in power—they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.”

The five keys Lichtman said the Democrats are currently losing are:

• Key 1—The Democratic Party was trounced in the 2014 midterm elections.
• Key 3—President Obama is prevented from seeking re-election because he is constitutionally term limited.
• Key 7—The White House hasn’t announced any major policy change (e.g. The Affordable Care Act).
• Key 11—No major foreign policy success.
• Key 12—”Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.”

Lichtman said the presence of former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, is currently providing the sixth “false” answer that could doom Democrats in November. However, one could also make the argument the Obama Administration triggered a “false” answer to keys 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10.

But, going back to his original statement about Trump breaking “patterns of history,” he refused to believe the election is guaranteed for either candidate. The patterns could instead point to a general Republican victory while Trump still loses the White House.

“I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor,” he said. “So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you’re for, you gotta get out and vote.”